Room 2605, East Daming Road 1050, Hongkou District, Shanghai
zkchina@zkconsultinggroup.com
+86 021-60715651 / 156 5187 9931 Ms. Zhang
1.Overall Market Development Status of the Photovoltaic Industry
1.1 Development of the Global Photovoltaic Industry
In the past decade, the global photovoltaic installed capacity has been continuously increasing, with the cumulative total installed capacity increasing from 69GW in 2011 to 757GW in 2020; The total installed capacity increased from 52GW in 2011 to 130GW in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 10.7%
1.2 Development of China's Photovoltaic Industry
1.2.1 Domestic situation
For many years, the domestic photovoltaic industry has been leading the world. By the end of 2020, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics had reached 253GW. In 2020 alone, 48.8GW of new installed capacity had been added. Except for 2018, which was affected by the "5.31" photovoltaic new policy and saw some fluctuations in new installed capacity, in the past decade, China's new photovoltaics have grown at an average annual rate of 48.4%; In addition, the actual photovoltaic power generation is also continuously increasing, reaching 260.5 billion kilowatt hours in 2020, accounting for 3.5% of the overall power generation
1.2.2 Export situation
In 2011, the United States and Europe launched a "double anti" investigation into China, which led to a brief contraction of China's overseas photovoltaic market, and the total export volume of China's photovoltaic products continued to grow; Under the influence of the epidemic and raw material price reductions, the total export value of photovoltaic products in 2020 still reached 19.75 billion US dollars; The export volume of photovoltaic modules continues to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 18%
1.3 China's centralized v. s. distributed grid connected power generation
In 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of centralized and distributed systems accounted for 69.2% and 30.8% respectively, while the newly added installed capacity accounted for 67.8% and 32.2% respectively; The industrial structure is gradually shifting towards distributed photovoltaics, mainly due to the fact that distributed photovoltaics are located on the user side and have the advantage of effectively solving consumption problems and improving waste light rate; At present, most distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in provinces are eligible for de subsidy; After parity, the potential for distributed photovoltaic applications is enormous
2. Photovoltaic-related policies and future trends
2.1 "carbon neutrality" target
As the country with the highest proportion of total carbon emissions in the world, China announced that it will reach its peak in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060; By the end of 2020, 44 countries and economies have announced carbon neutrality targets
At the same time, in response to the national goal of "carbon neutrality", photovoltaic enterprises such as Jinko, Longji and Sungrow Power planned to achieve 100% use of renewable energy by 2030; Cross border enterprises such as Baidu, Apple, Amazon, and Toshiba plan to construct, research and develop, and invest in photovoltaic power generation projects
2.2 Review of the 13th Five Year Plan Development and Prospects for the 14th Five Year Plan Situation
China's photovoltaic industry technology has reached an international leading level, and its product self-sufficiency and cost-effectiveness are relatively high. In order to reduce China's energy dependence on foreign countries and address issues such as tariffs imposed by the United States, it has received a large number of domestic policies in recent years, becoming a key transformation direction in China's power generation industry
2.2.1 Review of the 13th Five Year Plan Policy:
| particular year |
Photovoltaic grid electricity price (I/II/III) (yuan/kWh) |
policy | Specific situation |
|
2016 |
0.8/0/88/0.98 | The 13th Five Year Plan for Solar Energy Development | The annual utilization hours of solar power in power limited areas have fully met the requirements of fully guaranteed acquisition, and efforts have been made to address the issue of solar power curtailment and power limitation. |
|
2017 |
0.65/0.75/0.85 | Attempt to solve the arrears of subsidy funds | Trial implementation of the renewable energy green power certificate issuance and voluntary subscription trading system, with plans to impose mandatory constraints on trading in a timely manner |
|
2018 |
0.5/0.6/0.7 | Accelerated process of de subsidy | The "5.31 Photovoltaic New Policy" has stimulated the domestic photovoltaic industry to shift from high-speed development to high-quality development, leading to an outbreak of demand in overseas markets |
|
2019 |
0.4/0.45/0.55 |
From demonstration to marketization | The issuance of the parity policy means that the subsidy intensity under competitive allocation is lower than half of the guidance price subsidy, which means that we need to promote complete exit through market-oriented means of scale parity+competitive allocation, and guide photovoltaic power generation to accelerate the realization of comprehensive parity |
|
2020 |
0.3/0.4/0.49 |
Basically achieving parity on the power generation side | Reasonably set the subsidy rebate range and guide photovoltaic power generation to achieve affordable grid access through market-oriented mechanisms; Laying the foundation for the high-quality development of new energy in the early stage of the 14th Five Year Plan |
During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the photovoltaic grid electricity price decreased from 0.8/0.88/0.98 in 2016 to 0.3/0.4/0.49 in 2020, basically achieving parity on the power generation side; The production of various links in the manufacturing sector has doubled. From 2015 to 2020, the production of polycrystalline silicon increased by 136.4%, the production of battery cells increased by 187.8%, the production of silicon wafers increased by 202.1%, and the production of components increased by 133.6%; The photovoltaic market is steadily growing, with a total power generation of approximately 845.2 billion kWh from 2016 to 2020
2.2.2 Prospects for the 14th Five Year Plan:
Future Prospects for the Photovoltaic Industry - By 2025, renewable energy will account for 95% of new power generation installations, with photovoltaic accounting for 60% of all new renewable energy installations
Market Forecast for Photovoltaic Applications - From 2020 to 2025, conservatively predicted that China's annual average new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 70GW, while optimistically predicted that it will reach 90GW, which is 1.4 times and 1.9 times higher than 2020, respectively
Photovoltaic industry chain supply system and application - accelerate the improvement of concentration ratio of the industry chain, and three major industrial clusters in the northwest, southwest and east during the "14th Five Year Plan" period; Continue to promote the "photovoltaic+" project, which will help clean and low-carbon development in industries, construction, transportation, communication, and other fields
2.3 Photovoltaic Policy Planning for Various Provinces in China
2021 is the beginning year of the 14th Five Year Plan, and currently 11 provinces have released planning goals and development directions for photovoltaic projects during the 14th Five Year Plan
| Province | Planning and Objectives |
| Zhejiang | During the 14th Five Year Plan period, Zhejiang Province will implement the "doubling of scenery" project; The installed capacity of photovoltaics will increase from the current 15.17 million kW to 28 million kW, adding approximately 13 GW, accounting for 19.7% of the province's electricity installation, becoming the second largest installed energy source after thermal power |
|
Jiangsu |
Diversified promotion of solar energy utilization; By the end of 2025, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the province will reach 26 million kilowatts, including 12 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation and 14 million kilowatts of centralized photovoltaic power stations |
| Shandong | Implementing a renewable energy doubling plan; The installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has exceeded 50 million kilowatts, and an investment of over 30 billion yuan has been completed within the year; At the same time, establish an independent energy storage sharing and priority participation mechanism for energy storage in peak shaving scheduling. In principle, new energy stations should be equipped with no less than 10% energy storage facilities; The scale of new energy storage facilities in the province has reached around 200000 kilowatts; The expected total new scale of wind and photovoltaic power in 2021 is approximately 10GW |
|
Liaoning |
Promote the leapfrog development of clean energy in the province, and achieve the goal of achieving 50% of clean energy installed capacity by 2025; Clearly extend the implementation period of the "Liaoning Province Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Three Year Construction Work Plan (2019-2021)" to 2025 (2022-2025), and launch a new round of key project construction work to vigorously promote clean energy construction, including 3.3GW of wind power and 1.5GW of photovoltaic power. Additionally, the new photovoltaic projects focus on supporting the construction of coal resource transformation cities using idle land in abandoned mining areas |
| Shaanxi | We will comprehensively accelerate the implementation of power supply parity for wind and photovoltaic power generation, steadily and orderly promote biomass power generation, vigorously promote the construction of integrated demonstration projects for hydrogen energy, wind and solar hydrogen storage, and strive to achieve an installed capacity of 50%, with power generation accounting for 40% of the total social electricity consumption; During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the province will focus on building two 10 million kilowatt level renewable energy bases in northern Shaanxi based on the construction of 20 million kilowatt renewable energy installations |
| Jilin | We will innovate and develop new energy sources such as hydrogen energy, wind energy, solar energy, and biomass energy, and integrate pumped storage energy resources from the east and new energy resources from the west. We will launch the "Three Gorges on Land" project in Jilin and promote the construction of the "Jidian South Transmission" ultra-high voltage channel |
| Hebei | Build Zhangjiakou National Renewable Energy Demonstration Zone and National Hydrogen Energy Industry Demonstration City, build a comprehensive energy system, accelerate the construction of clean energy facilities, and promote the construction of a strong intelligent and safe power grid. The scale of photovoltaic projects under construction in Hebei and planned to be connected to the grid by the end of 2021 is as high as 12.943 million kW, and the newly added scale of photovoltaic projects in Hebei Province during the 14th Five Year Plan period will definitely exceed 22GW |
| Guangdong | Vigorously develop advanced nuclear energy, offshore wind power, solar energy and other advantageous industries, accelerate the cultivation of emerging industries such as hydrogen energy, energy storage, and smart energy, build coastal new energy industry belts and industrial clusters with differentiated layouts within the province, and promote the transformation of clean and low-carbon energy. By 2025, non fossil energy consumption in the province will account for about 30% of the total energy consumption in the province; From 2020 to 2025, Guangdong's new installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaic, and biomass will reach 29.11GW |
| Sichuan | The total installed capacity of the "Three Provinces and One City" photovoltaic base in Sichuan during the 14th Five Year Plan is expected to be 20GW, with 0.8GW completed for bidding |
| Yunnan | There is no public information on the overall planning goals of Yunnan during the 14th Five Year Plan period; However, in 2021 alone, Yunnan plans to add 7.9GW of wind power and 3GW of photovoltaic projects |
| Guangxi | On November 27, 2020, Guangxi completed the allocation of 0.41GW of affordable photovoltaic project indicators and requested full capacity grid connection before the 2021 period. On December 28, 2020, the Energy Bureau of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued the "Notice on the Construction Plan of the Second Batch of Affordable Photovoltaic Projects in 2020". Guangxi added 10 new affordable grid connected photovoltaic projects with a total scale of 0.768GW (these projects require full capacity grid connection before the end of 2021. If the construction is not started on schedule or the full capacity grid connection is not achieved on schedule, our bureau will recover the construction indicators of the unfinished parts) |
2.4 Policies related to photovoltaic energy storage
Photovoltaic power generation has the drawbacks of high volatility and obvious intermittency. In order to achieve the goal of high proportion of future photovoltaic access, photovoltaic energy storage is urgent, and many regions across the country have introduced policies related to photovoltaic+energy storage; However, there is a current situation of high prices and low lifespan for photovoltaic energy storage at the same time. For example, if a 10%, 2-hour energy storage project is configured, its initial investment will increase by 8% -10%
| Province | Proportion of energy storage allocation for new energy projects (during the 14th Five Year Plan period) |
| Datong, Shanxi | ≥5% |
| Ningxia | ≥10% |
| Qinghai | ≥10% |
| Inner Mongolia | Strive to achieve a responsibility weight of over 25% for the total consumption of renewable energy electricity in the entire region |
| Guizhou | 10% (in restricted areas for delivery and consumption) |
| Hunan | 20% new wind power and 10% new photovoltaic power |
| Shandong | ≥10% |
| Shaanxi | ≥ 10% (Guanzhong, Shaanbei) |
| Guizhou | Projects that have been put into operation: supporting energy storage within one year of production; New project: synchronous supporting energy storage |
2.5 Policies related to partition wall electricity sales
Faced with the problem of declining photovoltaic subsidies and insufficient distribution, partition wall electricity sales have emerged
Developing partition wall electricity sales can alleviate the problems of enterprise funds and profits for electricity sales units; For the government, it has solved the problem of insufficient funding for photovoltaic subsidies; For the State Grid of China, overcharging can alleviate the shortage of revenue from energy conversion
In 2019, the country passed the first batch of 26 pilot projects for selling electricity through partitions. After more than a year of promotion, the Jiangsu pilot project was successfully connected to the grid for power generation at the end of 2020. The project is expected to generate 6.8 million kilowatt hours of electricity annually, and the electricity generated will be directly traded on the market in the nearby 110 kV substation power supply area; Selling electricity through partitions takes a big step towards promoting nationwide sales
appendix
3. Situation of the Photovoltaic Industry Chain
3.1 Introduction to the Photovoltaic Industry Chain
3.2 Competitive landscape of photovoltaic modules
3.2.1 Shipping volume of China's leading photovoltaic enterprises
3.2.2 Top 10 global component shippers from 2017 to 2020
Copyright Statement: The copyright of the images and text in this report belongs to Zhikai Consulting (www.zkconsultinggroup. com). Please contact us for reprints or citations
© 2016 - 2021 ZK Consulting Group Ltd,. Corp.